Retirement Confidence

Runs thousands of market scenarios through three phases: Phase 1 gap years (brokerage only) → Phase 2 SS active (SS + brokerage) → Phase 3 RMD age (SS + RMD, surplus reinvested). Roth is never drawn and shown as your legacy balance.

The above is a specific case where Roth conversion is done from the retirement start years till SS is started. Also the assumption is that money is not withdrawn from Roth IRA and is left for legacy distribution. Conditions can be changed

Retirement confidence calculator is to give you an idea about "Will I run out of money?" or "How long will my money last?"

Success Rate

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Median Ending Balance

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10th Percentile End

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90th Percentile End

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Earliest Failure Age

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Simulations Run

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Roth IRA (Legacy — never drawn)

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Portfolio paths by age — percentile bands

🔍 How much money can I spend with 90% or 95% confidence and still have it last?

Using your current inputs, this finds the maximum annual withdrawal that still achieves your chosen confidence target — using binary search over 500 quick simulations per step. Input 90 or 95 to get a higher level of confidence of how much you can spend and still meet the target confidence %

Target confidence: %

Maximum annual spending at your target confidence

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